Calculated Risk: Business Insider Interview

by Bill McBride on 11/21/2012 02:07:00 PM

I spoke with Joe Weisenthal at Business Insider yesterday. He wrote a way too nice article and included some of our conversation: The Genius Who Invented Economics Blogging Reveals How He Got Everything Right And What's Coming Next

Genius? Hardly. I just paid attention and put 2 plus 2 together.

And I didn't get "everything right", but I did get most of the US macro trends correct over the last 8 years. I started blogging in January 2005, and most of my early posts were about housing, as an example: Housing: Speculation is the Key

And I definitely didn't invent economics blogging. Barry Ritholtz and others were ahead of me.

In the interview, I mentioned the "doomer" mentality. Many people now think of the '90s as a great decade for the economy - and it was. But there were doomsday predictions every year. As an example, in 1994 Larry Kudlow was arguing the Clinton tax increases would lead to a severe recession or even Depression. Wrong. By the end of the '90s, there were many people concerned about the stock bubble and I shared that concern, but there were doomers every year (mostly wrong).

In the Business Insider interview, I said: "I?m not a roaring bull, but looking forward, this is the best shape we?ve been in since ?97". Obviously the economy is still sluggish, and the unemployment rate is very high at 7.9%, but I was looking forward. I mentioned the downside risks from Europe and US policymakers (the fiscal slope), but I think the next few years could see a pickup in growth.

In the article I highlighted two of the reasons I expect a pickup in growth that I've mentioned before on the blog; a further increase in residential investment, and the end of the drag from state and local government cutbacks.

I also mentioned an excellent piece on autos from David Rosenberg back in early 2009. His piece made me think about auto sales - and I came to a different conclusion than Rosenberg, see: Vehicle Sales. I started expecting auto sales to bottom, and that led me to be more optimistic for the 2nd half of 2009.

I enjoyed talking with Joe - although he was way too nice - and, yes, that is a picture of me.

Source: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/11/business-insider-interview.html

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Explorers hunt mystery island depicted by online maps, draw a deep blue blank

Was it submerged after the satellite made its sweep? Did those volcanic-black pixels crumble and drown under their own weight? Have military censors deliberately obscured the truth? Australian explorers who sailed the South Pacific for 25 days in search of the landmass known as Sandy Island, after spotting it on Google Earth, have returned none-the-wiser. And it's not just Google that is apparently inaccurate -- a Coral Sea island in the same position also appears on Yahoo, Bing and even iOS maps, as well as on the Times Atlas of the World under the eerily appropriate name of Sable Island, which could be interpreted as "Very Dark Black Island."

The depth of the ocean is around 1,400 meters at these coordinates (-19.225583, 159.938759), which is precisely why the the University of Sydney's maritime researchers went looking -- it would be an extremely unusual outcrop if it actually existed. One down-to-earth explanation is that the entity is the cartographic equivalent of a watermark, allowing the mapmaker to tell if his work has been pirated, but no doubt there are other possibilities. Dr Maria Seton, fresh from a fruitless month on the waves, insists she plans to "follow up and find out."

Filed under: Misc, Alt

Comments

Source: PhysOrg / AFP

Source: http://www.engadget.com/2012/11/22/mystery-island-coral-sea/

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Psychological Complaints Not Tied to a Full Moon | Psych Central ...

By Rick Nauert PhD Senior News Editor
Reviewed by John M. Grohol, Psy.D. on November 20, 2012

Forget the vampire movies and the link between lunar phases and the incidence of psychological problems. New research from France?s Universit? Laval debunks the popular notion that moon stages influence mental health.

Researchers directed by psychologist Dr. Genevi?ve Belleville examined the relationship between the moon?s phases and the number of patients who show up at hospital emergency rooms experiencing psychological problems.

The investigators evaluated patients who visited emergency rooms at Montreal?s Sacr?-Coeur Hospital and H?tel-Dieu de L?vis between March 2005 and April 2008.

They focused specifically on 771 individuals who showed up at the emergency room with chest pains for which no medical cause could be determined. Psychological evaluations revealed that a sizable number of these patients suffered from panic attacks, anxiety and mood disorders, or suicidal thoughts.

Using lunar calendars, the researchers determined the moon phase in which each of these visits occurred.

Analyses revealed no link between the incidence of psychological problems and the four lunar phases. There was one exception, however; anxiety disorders were 32 percent less frequent during the last lunar quarter.

?This may be coincidental or due to factors we did not take into account,? suggested Genevi?ve Belleville. ?But one thing is certain: we observed no full-moon or new-moon effect on psychological problems.?

This study?s conclusions run contrary to 80 percent of nurses and 64 percent of doctors who were convinced that the lunar cycle affects patients? mental health.

Previous research has also found no association with the lunar phase and suicide, psychiatric admissions to a hospital, calls to a crisis center, domestic violence, or violent crimes. In other words, the idea that a full moon is associated with greater abnormal behavior is simply an urban legend.

?We hope our results will encourage health professionals to put that idea to rest,? said?Belleville. ?Otherwise, this misperception could, on the one hand, color their judgment during the full moon phase; or, on the other hand, make them less attentive to psychological problems that surface during the remainder of the month.?

Details on the study can be found on the website of the journal General Hospital Psychiatry.

Source: Universit? Laval

Four phases of the moon photo by shutterstock.

APA Reference
Nauert PhD, R. (2012). Psychological Complaints Not Tied to a Full Moon. Psych Central. Retrieved on November 21, 2012, from http://psychcentral.com/news/2012/11/20/psychological-complaints-not-tied-to-a-full-moon/47947.html

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Source: http://psychcentral.com/news/2012/11/20/psychological-complaints-not-tied-to-a-full-moon/47947.html

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Ted Cruz Speaks Out on the Economy, Immigration, and Hispanic Outreach

Senator-elect Ted Cruz, R-Texas, appeared on "On the Record," and had a conversation with the show's host, Greta Van Susteren, on a variety of subjects, including immigration, the economy, and the Republican Party's difficulty getting Hispanic votes.

Cruz reiterates his views on fixing the economy

During his appearance, Cruz restated his views on how the moribund American economy might be fixed. His prescription including cutting spending and the debt, reforming taxes and regulations, all of which he says will help foster economic growth and thus get people back to work.

Cruz: Senate Democrats are being irresponsible

Cruz went on to accuse Senate Democrats, especially Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, of being irresponsible. The Senate, under Democratic control, has not passed an actual budget in years. This, in Cruz's view, has led to profligate spending.

Cruz on immigration and Hispanic outreach

Cruz expressed the belief that Republican problems attracting more Hispanic voters is a matter of communication and tone. He believes that American Hispanics are a natural conservative voting bloc, but have been turned off of the GOP due to its rhetoric on the immigration issue. He notes that the economy and jobs are polled as being more important to Hispanics than immigration and that one in 10 Hispanic households own small businesses. He also noted that while Democrats have been able to elect Hispanics as mayors or members of the House, they have a difficulty electing them to statewide offices. Susanna Martinez and Brian Sandoval, both governors, and Marco Rubio and Cruz himself, both Senators, are examples of Republican Hispanics who have been elected to statewide offices, thus exhibiting a broad appeal.

Cruz seen as an example of tea party strength

Policymic suggests that Cruz's victory over an establishment Republican, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, in the Republican primaries in Texas represents the continuing strength of the tea party. The piece suggests that Cruz's victory could serve as a model for Republican, tea party-supported Hispanics running in other races.

Hispanic vote went to Barack Obama

Fox News Latino suggests that the Hispanic vote went overwhelmingly to Barack Obama because the Democrats succeeded in painting the Republicans and Mitt Romney as being hostile to immigrants and Hispanics. Romney had taken a hard line on immigration as a means to appeal to the conservative base. His attempt to woo Hispanics on economic issues seem to have fallen on deaf ears. Obama won the Hispanic vote 72 percent to 23 percent, which may have also contributed to the Democrats retaining control of the Senate.

Texas resident Mark Whittington writes about state issues for the Yahoo! Contributor Network.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/ted-cruz-speaks-economy-immigration-hispanic-outreach-195600178.html

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PFT: Cutler: Dobbins' hit didn't have 'malicious intent'

Getty Images

Ground won?t be broken on a new stadium in L.A. until a team is lined up to play there.? And once it?s known that a team will be playing there, it means that the team will have a hard time continuing to play in the ?there? that they?ll be abandoning.

So a temporary home in Los Angeles will be needed.? And it?s looking like that place will be the Rose Bowl.

According to the Pasadena Sun (via SportsBusiness Daily), the powers-that-be in that Southern California city voted on Tuesday to allow an expansion of the permissible number of annual events at the Rose Bowl from 12 to 25.? After a five-hour meeting that included plenty of citizens who complained about the traffic, noise, and other drawbacks to hosting NFL games, Pasadena City Council voted 7-1 to approve the increase for up to five years.

?We have a fiduciary responsibility to the whole city to take the next step,? Councilwoman Margaret McAustin said.?? I?m not excited about the NFL, and clearly [the Rose Bowl?s neighbors] are not excited, but it?s the responsible thing to do.?

Six years ago, a divided council blocked by one vote the possibility of the Rose Bowl providing a permanent home for an NFL team.? ?[T]his is different,? Councilman Steve Madison said. ?This is a temporary matter when we have dire financial needs.?

Currently, the Rose Bowl hosts UCLA home games and, yes, the Rose Bowl.

The addition of 13 events and not 12 adds a little potential intrigue to the move.? With the NFL?s current scheduling formula putting the maximum number of home games in any given season at 12, the expansion to 13 hints at either a Super Bowl or an extra home game that would come from expanding the regular season to 18 games and keeping the preseason at four.

The more likely (but far less interesting) explanation is that some NFL regular seasons finish in early January, which could result in a maximum of 13 regular-season games played in a given stadium in a full calendar year, if the next regular season finishes in December.

Either way, the foundation has been put in place for L.A. to house a team temporarily, while it?s permanent house is being built.

The biggest problem for the NFL could be coming up with a way to relax the blackout rule, given that it will be a tall order to fill the continuous bowl to its 92,000-seat capacity on a consistent basis.

Source: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/11/20/cutler-dobbins-didnt-have-malicious-intent/related/

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Blue Jays hire John Gibbons as manager again

FILE - This Feb. 19, 2008 file photo shows Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons leaning on the batting cage during a spring training workout in Dunedin, Fla. The Blue Jays have hired John Gibbons as manager. The 50-year-old Gibbons returns to the club where he served as manager from 2004-2008. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Ryan Remiorz, File)

FILE - This Feb. 19, 2008 file photo shows Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons leaning on the batting cage during a spring training workout in Dunedin, Fla. The Blue Jays have hired John Gibbons as manager. The 50-year-old Gibbons returns to the club where he served as manager from 2004-2008. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Ryan Remiorz, File)

FILE - This March 30, 2008, file photo shows Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons sitting in the dugout at Yankee Stadium in New York. The Blue Jays have hired John Gibbons as manager. The 50-year-old Gibbons returns to the club where he served as manager from 2004-2008. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig, File)

TORONTO (AP) ? John Gibbons was hired as manager of the Toronto Blue Jays for the second time Tuesday, returning to a team that just invigorated its roster after a blockbuster trade with the Miami Marlins.

"I never would have guessed this could happen," he said at a news conference.

Gibbons managed Toronto 2004-2008 and had a 305-305 record, making him the third winningest manager in franchise history.

He succeeds John Farrell, who spurned Toronto for his dream managing job in Boston. Gibbons, however, takes over a very different team from the one Farrell managed.

The surprise announcement came a day after the Blue Jays completed a mega deal in which they acquired All-Star shortstop Jose Reyes and pitchers Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle from Miami. Toronto agreed to the trade last week and Commissioner Bud Selig approved it Monday. The Blue Jays, extraordinarily busy in this offseason, also announced the signing of free agent outfielder Melky Cabrera.

"Who wouldn't want to be here?" Gibbons said. "The front office has put together a legitimate contending type team."

Toronto general manager Alex Anthopoulos had said he wanted someone who was familiar with the organization and city. Anthopolous was an assistant GM when Gibbons managed Toronto. Gibbons joins Cito Gaston as managers serving two stints with the Blue Jays.

His best season was in 2006, when Toronto went 87-75 to finish second in the division ? the same season he had a well-publicized blowup with players Shea Hillenbrand Ted Lilly.

Gibbons most recently managed the San Antonio Missions of the Texas League (AA) in the San Diego Padres' organization last season. He also had three seasons as the Kansas City Royals' bench coach.

Gibbons joined the Blue Jays' coaching staff in 2002 as a bullpen catcher and was promoted midseason to first base coach. He served in that capacity until replacing Carlos Tosca in 2004. Before joining the Blue Jays the first time, Gibbons spent 11 seasons working with the New York Mets.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/347875155d53465d95cec892aeb06419/Article_2012-11-20-BBA-Blue-Jays-Gibbons/id-19842e363e8c40bfa51d7c70e218183e

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lawrencechritt: Claire Langhams EDM310 Blog: Special Blog ...

A World Where Grades Will Be Left Behind In celebration of its 30th anniversary, USA TODAY interviewed some of the USA's greatest visionaries to talk about the world of tomorrow. Mary Beth Marklein published the article "A World Where Grades Will Be Left Behind" to discuss just what the title implies: what would the world be like if there were no grades? In the article, USA TODAY interviewed Sebastian Thrun, a Google Vice President and Stanford research professor best known for his role in building Google's driverless car. Thrun's idea of an educational reform is described in his version of learning, which he says can be made free and available to anyone who wants it. Thrun is the owner of Udacity, which is an education company based in California that provides a higher education for free. Udacity's goal is to offer a university-level education of high quality and low cost. Using the economics of the Internet, they claim to have connected some of the greatest teachers to hundreds of thousands of students all over the world. In Thrun's version of education, he explains a few key concepts: no one will be late for class, failure is not an option, and lessons are made to look like games, such as the popular physics-based puzzle game "Angry Birds." The whole vision of Udacity came to Thrun after he had the opportunity to teach a free online artificial-intelligence course that drew more than 160,000 students. This experience was so profound to him that he announced he no longer could teach in a traditional Stanford classroom. Thus, Udacity was born, and Thrun began his mission to revolutionize education. He made reference to the concept of "flipping the classroom," which occurs when students watch a video at home and come to class ready with questions to be answered by the teacher. Thrun explains how both online learning and flipping the classroom are made possible through technology, and because of these two concepts, classes will involve a sequence of increasingly more challenging exercises and quizzes aimed at helping students master a particular concept or skill. Thrun calls grades "the failure of the education system," so therefore, he intends to eliminate them completely. Instead, students will take as much or as little time as they need to demonstrate mastery of a particular skill or concept. This type of online education will be free, but related services may involve a fee. All in all, Thrun hopes to democratize education through technology. As I was reading this article, the message Mr. Thrun described seemed really cool and much more innovative than the education we see in many classrooms today. As I thought about it and looked at it more closely though, this type of educational reform raises a sense of skepticism. Yes, a free education where you get to play games on the Internet and learn at your own pace sounds great, but in reality, is this concept of education truly possible to the magnitude in which Mr. Thrun described? I have my doubts. The first item on his list that seems out of reach is the free part. If the top, most sought-out professors from all around the world are being called upon to teach these online classes, how does the Udacity team plan on paying them a salary? As a future teacher, I'm all about teaching my students because I truly want them to learn and grow, but in reality, I will be seeking a paycheck as well. I'm sure many of the professors Udacity has confronted feel the same way. I understand the students would be charged fees every once and a while, but simple fees would not be enough to pay for the numerous things this operation would call for: the high-tech computers and software that would be needed, the team working on these computers and programs, and as I mentioned earlier, the professors teaching the courses. "Free" sounds great (especially to myself, a poor college kid), but when it comes down to crunching the numbers, money speaks rather loudly. The next item on the list that raises concerns for me is the fact that "a single class might enroll tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of students." I guess this sounds so bizarre to me because I personally like one-on-one contact and time with my teacher. If there are this many people in a single class, how is an instructor suppose to keep up with everything the students are doing? I understand Mr. Thrun's goal is to create an education that will respond to each individual student, but with that many students, I have my doubts. The third item I'd like to talk about is the "no more grades" idea. As a college student myself, this sounds wonderful. As long as I'm understanding the material and learning at my own pace, what do grades matter anyway? Well, as much as I hate to admit it, I think grades, or rather some kind of assessment, is needed. I'm all for students being able to take the time necessary to master concepts and skills, but without some form of assessment, I think students lose some of the responsibility needed to become successful. I don't necessarily think the "A, B, C, D, F" system is the only or best solution for assessment out there, but I do believe teachers should provide students with feedback on how they are progressing in a given class. Normally, that feedback comes through assessment.

Overall, I really enjoyed reading Mary Beth Marklein's article in USA TODAY because it brought up some really neat ideas for the future of education. Though I don't totally agree with everything Mr. Sebastian Thrun is advocating with the online learning society created by Udacity, I still think he offered up interesting and innovative ideas. I just believe a few things need to be tweaked to make them more realistic and doable. One thing Mr. Thrun and I most certainly agree on is how important technology is for the future and progression of education and for the way we teach our students.

Source: http://langhamclaireedm310.blogspot.com/2012/11/special-blog-assignment.html

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